Boston Consulting Group · Probability & Brainteasers
Compute posterior and predictive coin probabilities
TrueInterview
October 7, 2026 · 1 min read
There are two coins: F is fair, and B is biased with . You choose one coin uniformly at random and toss it three times. The first two tosses come up Heads, while the third toss has not yet been observed. a) Compute . b) Compute . c) Continuing with the same coin, let be the total number of flips until the first Tail occurs, including that flip. Compute , showing your derivation.
Overview: This problem tests Bayesian inference and probabilistic reasoning, specifically posterior updating, posterior predictive probability, and the conditional expectation of a stopping time after some outcomes have been observed.
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